GMA not yet out of the woods despite junking of impeachment — analysts

The Philippine Star 09/08/2005

President Arroyo has won the battle against impeachment but with her credibility damaged and street protests looming, brighter prospects for the Philippines are a long way off, analysts say.

Mrs. Arroyo’s allies in Congress closed ranks on Tuesday to protect their leader from being ousted, voting to junk three separate impeachment motions on allegations that she rigged the May 2004 vote.

While the President is extending a hand of reconciliation in a bid to unify the polarized nation, it may not be easy to appease a doubting public after months of political and economic turmoil.

"Gloria Arroyo at the moment has everything to lose. It’s not the end of her problems," said political analyst Tony Gatmaitan of Political Economic Applied Research, a Manila think tank.

"It was obvious from the start that she has allies in Congress. But in the parliament of the streets, she is at a disadvantage."

Former President Corazon Aquino, who led a noisy protest march of thousands after Tuesday’s vote, is seeking to unify the fragmented opposition and has vowed to lead more mass protests later this month.

Rene Soriano, president of the Employers’ Confederation of the Philippines, warned the vote against impeachment would likely fuel suspicion of a cover-up that could lead to more unhappiness on the streets.

"You could imagine what the results of the rallies and demonstrations would be if these are done on a sustained basis, two or three times a week," Soriano said.

The business community would like to "see a situation where there is complete closure," he said, warning that small- and medium-sized enterprises — 96 percent of the country’s commercial firms — would be greatly affected if the protests continued.

Mrs. Aquino was swept to office in a military-backed people power revolt that ousted dictator Ferdinand Marcos, and Gatmaitan recalled that she remains widely seen, especially by young Filipinos, as a freedom fighter.

"The fight has shifted to the streets. Aquino and the opposition groups have nothing to lose, although it may take some time before they can mount a major protest," Gatmaitan said.

"If (Aquino) does not stop, she will prove to be the biggest problem for Arroyo," he said. "She still has her base of support and the strength of the broad opposition coalition is precisely that, it is broad."

The crisis began in July when wiretapped conversations between a woman sounding like Arroyo and a man believed to be election commissioner Virgilio Garcillano were aired in public.

The two appeared to talk about conspiring to manipulate votes, and Arroyo’s popularity immediately took a plunge, forcing her to make a public apology for what she called a "lapse in judgment."

Members of her cabinet and close allies subsequently deserted her, foremost among them Aquino — who as president in the 1980s gave Arroyo her first government post as a junior trade minister. — AFP